National polling suggests Labour and National’s combined support could reach a new low under MMP, while Webfit News’s own reader poll offers a separate opportunity for audiences to...
National polling suggests Labour and National’s combined support could reach a new low under MMP, while Webfit News’s own reader poll offers a separate opportunity for audiences to share their political preferences.
New Zealand’s election contest is increasingly about more than choosing between Labour and National.
With a month to go before the 7 November election, polling reported by RNZ suggests the two parties that have traditionally led governments are losing ground collectively, opening more space for smaller parties.
The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll puts their combined support at 56.7 percent. If repeated on election day, that would be their lowest combined party vote since MMP was introduced in 1996.
The movement could affect both who forms the next government and how much influence coalition partners have over its decisions.
What is the ‘purple vote’?
“Purple vote” is shorthand for Labour and National’s combined share of the party vote, mixing Labour’s traditional red with National’s blue.
It measures their collective support, rather than the competition between them.
When a voter switches from National to Labour, or vice versa, the combined figure stays the same. When that voter chooses another party, the purple vote falls.
That makes it a useful way to examine whether voters are changing sides between the established parties or looking beyond them altogether.
National polls point to a smaller combined share
According to RNZ, Labour and National’s combined support fell from 61.3 percent in its August poll to 56.7 percent in the latest survey.
A separate 1News-Verian poll released on Tuesday recorded National at 29 percent and Labour at 28 percent, a combined 57 percent.
Those similar totals suggest the challenge extends beyond one poll. However, neither survey establishes what will happen on election day.
RNZ political editor Jo Moir described the latest combined figure as “jawdropping”, highlighting the opportunity it creates for smaller parties.
The longer trend has included reversals. Labour and National regained combined support in 2017 before losing ground again in subsequent elections. By 2023, their combined share was about 65 percent.
Why are voters looking elsewhere?
Political analyst Lara Greaves, an associate professor at Victoria University of Wellington, told RNZ the movement reflected a broader international shift away from established political parties.
She suggested some voters were seeking more substantial change because they felt successive governments had not improved their lives enough.
RNZ’s latest poll also found 53 percent of respondents believed New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction.
That points to dissatisfaction, although it does not explain every voter’s decision. People may support smaller parties because of a particular policy, a leader, their values or the influence they want those parties to exercise in government.
Webfit News readers are having their say
Alongside the national polling debate, Webfit News is running Election Pulse, a voluntary reader poll with a dashboard showing how participating readers’ preferences fall across different political groups.
In the snapshot displayed at 11.24am on 7 October, the current governing parties, National, ACT and New Zealand First, together received 52.8 percent of reader responses.
Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori together accounted for 33.3 percent, while parties outside those groups received 13.9 percent.
National recorded 13.9 percent and Labour 16.7 percent. Adding those displayed figures gives a combined reader “purple vote” of approximately 30.6 percent.
ACT and New Zealand First each recorded 19.4 percent, the Greens 16.7 percent, Opportunity 11.1 percent and the Women’s Rights Party 2.8 percent.
These figures describe the readers who participated. They are not a representative measure of nationwide voter support and cannot be directly compared with scientific national polls.
The dashboard combines reader responses across Webfit News electorate polls, excluding “undecided” and “prefer not to say”. Its results can change as further responses arrive.
Reader preferences do not predict parliamentary seats
Election Pulse provides a way for readers to participate in the discussion, but its percentages do not establish who would govern.
The dashboard does not convert responses into seats, apply the electoral threshold or account for electorate wins. Its grouping of opposition parties also does not establish that those parties have agreed to govern together.
The 52.8 percent recorded for the current governing parties therefore represents their share of participating readers’ responses, rather than a confirmed parliamentary majority or an election forecast.
Readers can take part and view the live results at:
https://poll.webfitnews.co.nz/coalition-2026
What a shrinking purple vote could mean
If Labour and National receive a smaller combined share on election day, smaller parties could gain greater influence over coalition negotiations.
That influence can shape spending priorities, public services and which campaign promises become government policy.
But smaller parties have different agendas and potential partners. Their combined support does not form a single political bloc.
The eventual balance of power will depend on the election result, parliamentary representation and the agreements parties can reach.
Webfit News perspective: Every party must earn its support
The national polling should challenge Labour and National to explain why voters should trust them to deliver. Their history of leading governments does not guarantee their future support.
Smaller parties face an equally important test. A promise of change needs a credible explanation of how that change would be funded, delivered and negotiated.
Our reader poll gives audiences a place to express their preferences. The national surveys provide a different kind of evidence about the wider electorate. Both can contribute to discussion when their limits are clearly understood.
For voters, the strongest question remains practical: which party has convincing answers to the problems affecting their lives, and what could it realistically achieve in government?
Source acknowledgement: This article draws on RNZ’s explainer, “What is the ‘purple vote’ and why is it shrinking?”, written by Nik Dirga, RNZ Digital Explainer Editor, including RNZ’s reporting of national polling and commentary from Jo Moir and Lara Greaves. Webfit News Election Pulse figures are taken from the dashboard screenshots showing results at 11.24am on 7 October 2026. The Webfit News perspective is our own editorial analysis.
