A sharp rise in New Zealanders moving to Australia has become an increasingly important part of Australia’s migration debate, with new reporting claiming the Albanese government was warned that easier citizenship and welfare access could encourage a larger trans-Tasman influx.
The issue has gained fresh attention after reporting by the Sydney Morning Herald, subsequently carried by Stuff, said Australian officials had warned the federal government that changes for New Zealand citizens could lead to more Kiwis relocating across the Tasman. (Ground News)
The numbers show there has been a substantial increase.
Australian Bureau of Statistics data records 53,020 migrant arrivals by New Zealand citizens in 2024-25, compared with an average of about 32,000 a year during the five years before the pandemic. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
At the same time, New Zealand is losing tens of thousands of people to Australia each year. Stats NZ estimated a net migration loss of 28,800 people to Australia in the year ended September 2025, with the loss overwhelmingly driven by New Zealand citizens. (Stats NZ)
The result is a migration story with consequences on both sides of the Tasman.
For Australia, New Zealand arrivals are making it harder to predict and reduce net overseas migration.
For New Zealand, the continuing departure of citizens raises questions about wages, employment opportunities, skills shortages and the country’s ability to retain younger workers.
The numbers at a glance
Measure Figure What it tells us NZ citizen migrant arrivals in Australia, 2024-25 53,020 Up significantly from pre-pandemic levels Pre-pandemic annual average of NZ citizen arrivals Around 32,000 Roughly 21,000 fewer than 2024-25 Increase from pre-pandemic average About 66% Indicates a major change in trans-Tasman movement NZ citizen arrivals in Australia, 2023-24 51,680 Surge was already evident a year earlier NZ citizen arrivals in Australia, 2022-23 42,660 Strong increase following border reopening Australia’s total net overseas migration, 2024-25 306,000 Down from the pandemic-era peak but still historically high Australia’s NOM, 2023-24 429,000 Shows overall migration is falling Australia’s NOM peak, year to Sep 2023 556,000 Post-pandemic high NZ net migration loss to Australia, year ended Sep 2025 28,800 Shows continuing trans-Tasman population drain Australian permanent Migration Program, 2026-27 185,000 places Separate from the broader NOM figure
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Stats NZ, Australian Department of Home Affairs. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
What changed for New Zealanders in Australia?
New Zealanders have long enjoyed unusually easy access to Australia.
Most New Zealand citizens travelling on a New Zealand passport can receive a Special Category Visa, subclass 444, allowing them to live and work in Australia.
But an important change took effect on 1 July 2023.
Eligible New Zealand citizens living in Australia on Special Category Visas were given a direct pathway to Australian citizenship without first needing to obtain permanent residency. (Parliament of Australia)
That significantly changed the long-term proposition for Kiwis considering Australia.
Previously, many New Zealanders could live and work indefinitely in Australia but faced restrictions compared with Australian permanent residents and citizens.
The citizenship changes removed one of the major disadvantages of moving across the Tasman.
For eligible New Zealanders, Australia now offers:
unrestricted access to the Australian labour market through the Special Category Visa a direct citizenship pathway for qualifying long-term residents potentially greater long-term security for families access to rights associated with Australian citizenship once approved the ability to remain close to New Zealand while accessing Australia’s much larger labour market
Australian parliamentary material confirms that New Zealand Special Category Visa holders can now apply directly for citizenship once they meet the relevant residence requirements. (Parliament of Australia)
Did the citizenship change cause the surge?
This is where the story needs more care than the headline alone suggests.
Recent Australian reporting says the Albanese government was warned internally that improving citizenship and welfare treatment for New Zealanders could lead to an increase in arrivals. The report says more than 50,000 New Zealanders a year subsequently arrived using subclass 444 arrangements. (Ground News)
But the available migration data does not prove that citizenship reform alone caused the increase.
Several factors are operating at the same time.
New Zealand experienced a weak labour market and economic downturn after the pandemic period. Reuters reported that 71,800 New Zealand citizens departed in the year ended June 2025, the highest level in 13 years, while unemployment had risen to 5.2 percent. (Reuters)
Australia, meanwhile, continued to offer comparatively strong employment opportunities in sectors such as healthcare, construction, mining and professional services.
That makes the citizenship change an important incentive, but not necessarily the sole driver.
How Kiwi arrivals have changed
ABS data provides a clear picture of the shift.
Financial year NZ citizen migrant arrivals into Australia 2014-15 31,750 2015-16 33,700 2016-17 32,330 2017-18 30,380 2018-19 30,540 2019-20 22,220 2020-21 16,950 2021-22 24,120 2022-23 42,660 2023-24 51,680 2024-25 53,020
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Overseas Migration data. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
The important comparison is not simply with the pandemic years, when borders were heavily disrupted.
The ABS says New Zealand citizen arrivals averaged approximately 32,000 annually during the five years before COVID-19.
At 53,000 arrivals in 2024-25, the latest figure is roughly 66 percent above that pre-pandemic average. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Australia’s migration problem is bigger than New Zealanders
It would also be misleading to suggest Kiwis are responsible for Australia’s overall migration surge.
Australia recorded 306,000 net overseas migrants in 2024-25, down sharply from 429,000 the previous year and from the record 538,000 recorded in 2022-23. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Temporary visa holders remain a much larger part of Australian migration.
In 2024-25:
363,000 migrant arrivals were temporary visa holders 157,000 were international students 78,000 were working holiday makers 56,000 were visitors who subsequently met the migration definition 46,000 were temporary skilled migrants 53,000 were New Zealand citizens (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
So New Zealanders are a meaningful part of the recent change, but they are only one component of Australia’s much larger migration system.
Australia’s NOM is falling, but not as fast as expected
There is another important distinction.
Australia’s government does not directly control the total net overseas migration number through a single visa quota.
Australia’s 2026-27 permanent Migration Program is set at 185,000 places, but net overseas migration includes many other groups, including temporary migrants and New Zealand citizens. (Immigration and citizenship Website)
The Australian government has forecast net overseas migration of around 295,000 for 2025-26 and 245,000 for 2026-27, according to reporting around the 2026 federal budget. The forecasts were revised upward partly because of higher New Zealand migration and fewer temporary migrants leaving Australia than previously expected. (The Australian)
This distinction matters.
A government can set permanent visa numbers, but it cannot simply cap the number of New Zealand citizens entering Australia under existing trans-Tasman arrangements in the same way.
Do not confuse arrivals with migration
Migration statistics are particularly easy to misuse.
The ABS has specifically warned media, politicians and commentators against using raw overseas arrivals and departures as if they were migration numbers.
Under Australia’s official definition, a migrant generally needs to spend at least 12 months in Australia during a 16-month period to count as a migrant arrival.
The ABS says net overseas migration, not simple border-crossing data, should be used when discussing population change. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
The distinction is significant.
For the year to December 2025, official Australian net overseas migration was 300,960. The ABS calculated that using permanent and long-term border movements instead would have overstated migration by about 179,570 people, or 60 percent. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
What is happening in New Zealand?
The Australian side of the story is only half of it.
New Zealand’s migration figures show a prolonged departure of its own citizens.
Stats NZ recorded 71,200 New Zealand citizen migrant departures in the year ended May 2025. (Stats NZ)
Australia remains the dominant destination.
Earlier Stats NZ figures showed 56 percent of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia in the June 2024 year. (Stats NZ)
By the year ended September 2025, the net trans-Tasman migration loss was about 28,800 New Zealand citizens. (Stats NZ)
This means New Zealand is not simply experiencing normal international migration churn.
It is losing a significant number of its own citizens to its closest economic competitor.
Why are Kiwis moving?
No single data series tells us why each person leaves, but economic evidence and migrant interviews consistently point to several factors.
The main pressures include:
better salaries in Australia a larger labour market more employment opportunities in some specialised professions New Zealand’s comparatively weak economic conditions unemployment and underemployment high housing and living costs easier long-term settlement in Australia following citizenship reforms geographic proximity that makes returning to New Zealand relatively easy
ABC reporting on New Zealand emigrants found job opportunities and higher pay were frequently cited by young Kiwis who had relocated to Australia. (ABC News)
Reuters similarly linked the record departure of New Zealand citizens to weak economic conditions and a deteriorating labour market. (Reuters)
The political argument in Australia
Migration has become one of the most contested issues in Australian politics, particularly because population growth is colliding with pressure on housing availability, rents and infrastructure.
Opposition politicians argue the Labor government has failed to bring migration down quickly enough.
The Albanese government points to the decline from the post-pandemic peak, with net overseas migration falling from 538,000 in 2022-23 to 306,000 in 2024-25. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Both things can be true.
Migration has fallen substantially.
It also remains above the levels Australia generally recorded before COVID-19.
The rise in New Zealand arrivals complicates the government’s task because Kiwis occupy a unique position under Australia’s migration system.
What the headline gets right, and what it does not
The claim circulating with the story deserves some separation between fact, allegation and interpretation.
Supported by official data
New Zealand citizen migration into Australia has risen sharply. NZ citizen arrivals reached 53,020 in 2024-25. That is considerably above the pre-pandemic average. New Zealand is experiencing a significant net migration loss to Australia.
Australia’s net overseas migration remains high by historical standards, despite falling from its post-pandemic peak. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Reported, but not independently established by the migration statistics
Senior officials warned Labor that its New Zealand citizenship changes would produce the subsequent increase. The government showed “total disregard” for those warnings.
Those claims originate from the latest Australian political reporting and should be attributed as such rather than presented as findings of the ABS or Stats NZ. (Ground News)
Too simplistic
Saying the citizenship changes alone caused the Kiwi migration surge.
The timing suggests the policy may have strengthened Australia’s attractiveness, but economic conditions, wages, employment opportunities and post-pandemic migration normalisation were also significant factors.
Why this matters for New Zealand
For Australia, another 20,000 or so New Zealand arrivals above historical norms are primarily a population-planning problem.
For New Zealand, the issue could be more serious.
People leaving are not simply population numbers.
They include nurses, teachers, tradespeople, engineers, technology professionals, young graduates and experienced workers whose skills are expensive to replace.
A sustained loss of working-age New Zealanders can potentially:
deepen skills shortages shrink the domestic tax base increase recruitment costs weaken productivity make it harder for employers to expand increase dependence on migration from elsewhere to replace departing workers
That creates an unusual cycle.
New Zealand attracts migrants to fill skills and workforce gaps while simultaneously losing significant numbers of its own citizens to Australia.
The bigger trans-Tasman question
The citizenship reforms were intended to correct what many New Zealanders had long regarded as an unequal arrangement.
Kiwis could work and pay taxes in Australia for many years while having fewer pathways to citizenship and less access to some services than other long-term residents.
Australia changed that system in 2023. (Parliament of Australia)
The unexpected consequence may be that Australia became even more attractive to New Zealand workers at precisely the moment New Zealand’s economy was struggling to retain them.
That leaves policymakers on both sides of the Tasman facing very different questions.
For Australia: how can migration be reduced when New Zealand citizens retain unusually open access to the country?
For New Zealand: why are so many citizens deciding their economic future looks better across the Tasman?
The second question may ultimately matter more to New Zealand than Australia’s migration debate itself.
Key takeaway
The data supports the central point that Kiwi migration into Australia has risen sharply.
New Zealand citizen migrant arrivals in Australia increased from a pre-pandemic average of about 32,000 a year to more than 53,000 in 2024-25, while New Zealand recorded a net migration loss of around 28,800 citizens to Australia in the year ended September 2025. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
But blaming that entire shift on Australia’s 2023 citizenship reforms would go further than the evidence allows.
The stronger conclusion is that the citizenship changes removed a major barrier to permanent settlement at the same time that Australia’s labour market became increasingly attractive to New Zealanders facing weaker conditions at home.
For New Zealand, that is less a story about Australian immigration policy than a warning about its own ability to retain people.
References
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Overseas Migration, 2024-25. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Australian Bureau of Statistics, Use Net Overseas Migration statistics to understand overseas migration. (Australian Bureau of Statistics)
Stats NZ, International migration: March 2026. (Stats NZ)
Australian Parliament, information on citizenship changes affecting New Zealand Special Category Visa holders. (Parliament of Australia)
Australian Department of Home Affairs, Permanent Migration Program planning levels. (Immigration and citizenship Website)
Sydney Morning Herald reporting, republished and summarised through Stuff and Ground News, 18 August 2026. (Ground News)
Source: Stats NZ
