Coalition reaches 52% in Roy Morgan poll, but projected majority remains narrow

By Webfit News | 7 October 2026

National, ACT and New Zealand First have opened a 10.5-percentage-point lead over Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in Roy Morgan’s September poll, their largest advantage since September 2024.

Released on 6 October, the survey puts the governing bloc at 52%, up three percentage points, against 41.5% for the parliamentary opposition.

Party support at a glance

Party	Support	Change from previous month
National	31%	Unchanged
Labour	23.5%	Down 0.5 percentage points
Greens	16%	Up 0.5 percentage points
ACT	11%	Up 0.5 percentage points
New Zealand First	10%	Up 2.5 percentage points
Opportunity	6.5%	See clarification below
Te Pāti Māori	2%	Up 0.5 percentage points

New Zealand First accounted for most of the governing bloc’s increase.

Roy Morgan reports combined support for parties outside Parliament at 6.5%, down 3.5 percentage points, predominantly comprising Opportunity. Its seat projection assigns Opportunity 6.5%.

What the poll could mean for Parliament

Roy Morgan’s projection gives the governing parties 62 seats, the parliamentary opposition 50 and Opportunity eight in a 120-seat Parliament.

That would put the coalition above the 61 seats needed for a majority in that scenario, but with little room for movement.

These figures are projections, not election results. Under New Zealand’s MMP system, parties generally need at least 5% of the party vote or an electorate victory to qualify for proportional seat allocation. Electorate results can also create an overhang, increasing Parliament’s size.

Coalition support and public confidence tell different stories

Despite the coalition’s polling lead, 50.5% of respondents said New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction, compared with 36% who said it was heading in the right direction.

Party preference and satisfaction with the country’s direction are different measures. Voters can favour a governing party while remaining unhappy about national conditions.

How the survey was conducted

Roy Morgan interviewed 859 electors nationwide by mobile and landline telephone between 31 August and 27 September. Five percent did not name a party.

The findings therefore reflect responses gathered during that period, rather than a survey conducted on the publication date.

Polls carry uncertainty. Small monthly changes should be interpreted cautiously, and a single survey cannot establish the eventual election outcome.

Key election dates

The Electoral Commission has confirmed:

• 21 October: Overseas voting begins.
• 25 October: Last day to enrol.
• 26 October: Advance voting begins.
• 7 November: Election day.
• 27 November: Official results are due.

The bottom line

A polling lead is not the same as a guaranteed governing majority. Turnout, party thresholds, electorate results and changes in voter preferences will determine the final shape of Parliament.

Sources: Roy Morgan Research, Finding No. 10351, published 6 October 2026; Electoral Commission.