With New Zealand heading to the polls on 7 November, the latest Whakaata Māori-Curia surveys show Te Pāti Māori candidates leading in several electorates, Labour attracting the...
With New Zealand heading to the polls on 7 November, the latest Whakaata Māori-Curia surveys show Te Pāti Māori candidates leading in several electorates, Labour attracting the strongest overall party support among Māori voters, and the cost of living dominating election concerns.
By Webfit News Political Desk | 2 November 2026
AUCKLAND: With New Zealand’s general election just days away, polling across the country’s seven Māori electorates is revealing a fascinating political picture. Some candidates have substantial leads, others face closely contested races, and a significant number of voters remain undecided.
The findings come from electorate surveys commissioned by Whakaata Māori and conducted by Curia Market Research as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage.
Te Ao Māori News published a comprehensive recap of the results on 2 November, bringing together polling from September and October.
The figures show Te Pāti Māori candidates recording the highest support in three electorates, Labour candidates in two, the Greens in one, and a particularly close contest between Te Pāti Māori and an independent candidate in Auckland’s Tāmaki Makaurau electorate.
But the most interesting finding emerges when these local contests are compared with the wider Māori party vote.
While Te Pāti Māori candidates are performing strongly in several electorate surveys, Labour leads the separate party-vote poll among Māori respondents with 34% support.
That difference offers an important insight into how Māori voters may approach New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system.
Māori Electorate Polls 2026: The Complete Picture
Here is how the seven electorates compare, based on the figures reported by Te Ao Māori News.
|
Electorate |
Leading candidate |
Support |
Second candidate |
Support |
Undecided |
|
Te Tai Tokerau |
Hūhana Lyndon (Green) |
24% |
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) |
18% |
22% |
|
Tāmaki Makaurau |
Oriini Kaipara (Te Pāti Māori) |
33% |
Kerrin Leoni (now independent) |
31% |
9% |
|
Hauraki-Waikato |
Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke (Te Pāti Māori) |
45% |
Kingi Kiriona (Labour) |
26% |
17% |
|
Waiariki |
Rawiri Waititi (Te Pāti Māori) |
42% |
Tania Waikato (Green) |
16% |
18% |
|
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti |
Cushla Tangaere-Manuel (Labour) |
40% |
Haley Maxwell (Te Pāti Māori) |
19% |
20% |
|
Te Tai Hauāuru |
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer (Te Pāti Māori) |
38% |
Te Pūoho Katene (Labour) |
27% |
18% |
|
Te Tai Tonga |
Mananui Ramsden (Labour) |
30% |
Lisa Marie Murch (Te Pāti Māori) |
17% |
17% |
Source: Whakaata Māori-Curia polling, as reported by Te Ao Māori News. These figures reflect voter preferences during the respective survey periods, not election results.
Tāmaki Makaurau: Auckland’s Two-Point Contest
Among the seven electorates, Tāmaki Makaurau presents one of the closest contests.
Incumbent Te Pāti Māori MP Oriini Kaipara recorded 33% support, just two percentage points ahead of Kerrin Leoni on 31%.
Green Party candidate Florence Te Ōhaere followed with 21%, while 9% of respondents remained undecided.
However, the contest has changed since the survey was conducted.
Leoni was standing as a Labour candidate during the polling period but has since left the party and is now contesting the election as an independent.
This development makes the figures particularly difficult to interpret.
What the numbers tell us
The two-point gap is small, but the bigger question is whether Leoni’s support was primarily personal or connected to her Labour affiliation.
The published survey cannot answer that question.
Some voters may continue supporting her regardless of party affiliation, while others may reconsider. Without fresh polling, it would be speculative to suggest how those preferences have changed.
For Auckland voters, this is a reminder that polling captures a particular moment in a campaign, not necessarily the circumstances voters face on election day.
Te Tai Tokerau: Greens Lead, but 22% Remain Undecided
Green Party candidate Hūhana Lyndon recorded 24% support in Te Tai Tokerau.
Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime followed on 18%, with Te Pāti Māori’s Aperahama Edwards close behind on 17%.
Incumbent Mariameno Kapa-Kingi recorded 12%.
Perhaps the most significant figure is the 22% of respondents who remained undecided, the highest undecided share among the seven electorate polls in the supplied recap.
What the numbers tell us
Although Lyndon recorded the highest support, the contest involves several candidates with meaningful levels of backing.
The Greens have never won a Māori electorate, meaning the race carries historical significance for the party.
However, a six-point gap between the two highest-polling candidates, combined with a substantial undecided group, is not enough to establish a final outcome.
Hauraki-Waikato: Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke Records a Substantial Lead
Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke recorded 45% support, compared with 26% for Labour’s Kingi Kiriona.
Another 17% of respondents were undecided.
The reported gap between the two candidates was 19 percentage points.
What the numbers tell us
The survey suggests strong individual candidate support for Maipi-Clarke at the time polling was conducted.
It also highlights the difference between electorate-level preferences and national party support.
A candidate can attract substantial local backing even when their party records a much lower percentage in a separate party-vote survey.
The figures should nevertheless be interpreted as polling estimates rather than confirmed votes.
Waiariki: Rawiri Waititi Records 42% Support
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi recorded 42% support in Waiariki.
Green Party candidate Tania Waikato followed on 16%, Labour’s Toni Boynton received 14%, and The Opportunity Party’s Pāpā Wharewera recorded 3%.
Another 18% remained undecided.
The gap between Waititi and the second-highest candidate was 26 percentage points.
What the numbers tell us
Waititi’s candidate support is substantially higher than Te Pāti Māori’s 8% showing in the separate overall Māori party-vote survey.
That difference is not necessarily contradictory.
Under MMP, voters can choose a local representative from one political party while giving their party vote to another.
The Waiariki figures demonstrate why electorate support and party support must be examined separately.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: Labour’s Cushla Tangaere-Manuel Leads
Labour MP Cushla Tangaere-Manuel recorded 40% support in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.
Te Pāti Māori candidate Haley Maxwell followed with 19%, while Green candidate Heather Te Au-Skipworth recorded 15%.
A further 20% remained undecided.
What the numbers tell us
Tangaere-Manuel’s reported support was 21 percentage points higher than that of the second-placed candidate.
The survey also shows that Labour remains competitive in Māori electorates, despite the attention often given to contests involving Te Pāti Māori.
However, with one in five respondents undecided during the survey, the figures should not be treated as a final result.
Te Tai Hauāuru: Debbie Ngarewa-Packer Ahead
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer recorded 38% support.
Labour candidate Te Pūoho Katene followed with 27%, while National’s Coral Raukawa recorded 10%.
Another 18% were undecided.
What the numbers tell us
The 11-point gap between the two leading candidates is smaller than the share of respondents who had not selected a candidate.
That does not mean undecided voters will move together or necessarily favour any particular party.
It does mean that the final outcome cannot be calculated simply by looking at the current polling gap.
Te Tai Tonga: Labour Leads a Crowded Contest
Labour candidate Mananui Ramsden recorded 30% support in Te Tai Tonga.
Te Pāti Māori’s Lisa Marie Murch followed with 17%, Green candidate Lisa Te Morenga received 16%, and incumbent independent MP Takuta Ferris recorded 15%.
Another 17% remained undecided.
What the numbers tell us
The particularly interesting feature is how closely grouped the second-, third- and fourth-placed candidates are.
Just two percentage points separate Murch, Te Morenga and Ferris.
Ferris, who previously represented Te Pāti Māori, is now standing independently.
As in Tāmaki Makaurau, the presence of an independent candidate adds another dimension to the relationship between personal support and party affiliation.
The Bigger Surprise: Labour Leads the Overall Māori Party Vote
While the electorate polls show strong support for individual Te Pāti Māori candidates, a separate general survey of 613 Māori voters across both the Māori and general electoral rolls paints a different picture.
The Whakaata Māori-Curia survey recorded the following party preferences:
|
Political party |
Party-vote support |
|
Labour |
34% |
|
Green Party |
18% |
|
New Zealand First |
9% |
|
Te Pāti Māori |
8% |
|
National |
7% |
|
The Opportunity Party |
4% |
|
ACT |
3% |
|
Unsure |
6% |
|
Declined to answer |
2% |
Source: Whakaata Māori-Curia general poll, conducted 15–22 October 2026, as reported by Te Ao Māori News. The published categories do not account for every percentage point.
Labour’s 34% is more than four times Te Pāti Māori’s reported 8%.
At first glance, that might appear inconsistent with the electorate polling.
But the two surveys measure different things.
Why the electorate vote and party vote can tell different stories
Under New Zealand’s MMP system, voters have two votes.
A voter might support a Te Pāti Māori candidate locally while giving their party vote to Labour or the Greens.
Equally, a voter may support a Labour candidate in their electorate while choosing another party nationally.
There is another important distinction: the general survey covers Māori voters enrolled on both the Māori and general rolls, while the electorate surveys focus on specific Māori electorates.
The results cannot be combined as though they represent the same sample.
The key point is that local candidate popularity does not automatically translate into equivalent nationwide party-vote support.
Cost of Living Dominates Māori Voter Concerns
Perhaps the most revealing finding in the wider poll has little to do with individual candidates.
When Māori voters were asked about their most important election issues, the cost of living stood well ahead of other concerns.
|
Issue |
Respondents identifying it |
|
Cost of living |
48% |
|
Health |
8% |
|
Housing affordability |
8% |
|
Te Tiriti o Waitangi-related issues |
7% |
Almost half of respondents identified the cost of living as their leading concern.
Health and housing affordability were tied at 8%, while Te Tiriti o Waitangi-related issues were cited by 7%.
What does this mean?
The results suggest that household financial pressures are a major priority for the Māori voters surveyed.
Rising everyday expenses, housing costs and financial security are likely to be familiar concerns for many New Zealand households.
However, the survey does not establish which party voters believe is best equipped to address those issues.
Nor does the relatively small share naming Te Tiriti-related issues as their single biggest concern mean those issues lack importance.
A voter may consider Treaty obligations important while still identifying household costs as their most immediate problem.
These are different questions, and they should not be treated as competing measures of political identity.
Five Important Takeaways From the Polls
1. Te Pāti Māori candidates are recording strong local support.
Candidates from the party lead the published polling in Hauraki-Waikato, Waiariki and Te Tai Hauāuru, as well as holding a narrow reported lead in Tāmaki Makaurau.
2. Labour has the highest reported party-vote support among Māori respondents.
Labour’s 34% in the separate general survey is the highest figure recorded for any party.
3. The Greens are prominent in several electorate contests.
Hūhana Lyndon recorded the highest candidate support in Te Tai Tokerau, while Green candidates also feature among the leading contenders elsewhere.
4. Undecided voters remain significant.
The proportion of undecided respondents ranged from 9% to 22% across the seven electorate polls.
5. Cost of living is the clearest issue-based finding.
At 48%, it was named as the leading concern far more frequently than any other individual issue reported in the general survey.
What the Polls Cannot Tell Us
Polling is useful, but there are limits to what can reasonably be concluded.
First, the electorate surveys were conducted at different times between September and October. They do not represent a simultaneous nationwide measurement.
Second, changes during the campaign, including candidate affiliation changes, may affect how relevant earlier results remain.
Third, undecided voters cannot automatically be assigned to a particular candidate.
Fourth, the general Māori party-vote survey and the individual electorate surveys cover different voter populations.
Finally, a polling lead is not an election result.
Sampling uncertainty, turnout, campaign developments and voters changing their minds can all affect the eventual outcome.
This is particularly important in close contests where only a few percentage points separate candidates.
Election Day: 7 November 2026
New Zealanders will vote in the general election on Saturday, 7 November.
Polling places will be open from 9am until 7pm on election day, with preliminary results expected to begin appearing after voting closes.
The official results, including special votes, are scheduled for release on 27 November.
For voters in Māori electorates, the election will determine their local parliamentary representatives as well as contribute to the overall composition of Parliament through the party vote.
The Bigger Picture
The Whakaata Māori-Curia polling shows that Māori electoral politics cannot be reduced to a contest between just two parties.
Te Pāti Māori candidates are recording substantial support in several electorates. Labour leads the wider party-vote survey. The Greens feature prominently in some local contests, and independent candidates introduce additional complexity.
The figures also show why it is important to distinguish between support for an individual candidate and support for a political party.
But beyond the party labels and candidate rankings, one issue emerges particularly clearly.
For the Māori voters surveyed, the cost of living is the most frequently identified concern.
As New Zealand approaches election day, the polling provides a valuable snapshot of voter preferences and priorities.
The final decisions, however, will be made at the ballot box.
Original Reporting and Sources
Original reporting: Te Ao Māori News / Whakaata Māori
Polling conducted by: Curia Market Research
Coverage series: Whakatau 2026
This article draws on the Whakaata Māori-Curia electorate and general-election polling originally reported by Te Ao Māori News, including its 2 November 2026 recap, Whakaata Māori-Curia poll: Who’s leading across the
reference: New Zealand Electoral Commission, https://elections.nz
Editorial disclosure: Webfit News did not commission or conduct these surveys. All polling data is credited to Whakaata Māori, Curia Market Research and Te Ao Māori News. The comparative analysis, explanations of New Zealand’s electoral system and interpretation of the polling findings have been prepared independently by Webfit News.
Was this article useful?
